June 15, 2012
With removing Obama from office being the highest priority in America today, I decided to study the landscape of the 2012 election myself, taking nothing for granted and a very realistic look at how the 2012 Presidential race is likely to shape up by November.
You are about to see why I started saying in 2008, that Obama will be nearly impossible to remove from office if allowed to complete his first term, no matter how ugly his first term record would become. Here’s why I was saying that…
Mitt Romney is a lock for the GOP nomination based upon 53.2% of the popular primary vote and 73% of the official GOP delegate count. Santorum in 2nd and Gingrich in 3rd are out of the race and Ron Paul is sitting at 11.2% of the popular vote, 6% in the delegate count. Barring any unforeseen miracles, Mitt Romney will emerge from the GOP Convention as the GOP nominee for the office of President. How people feel about that is an entirely different discussion left for another day.
Still, the Real Clear Politics poll averages shows Romney in a popular vote statistical tie with Obama in a head-to-head fight for the White House, despite Obama’s disastrous first term record on all fronts. 48 states are winner-takes-all in the Electoral College rules. Only Nebraska and Maine use a proportionate split based on popular vote margins, which is essentially a non-factor here.
What will Romney have to do to defeat Obama?
No matter what polling data indicates, Romney will begin his post-convention race to the White House with a significant disadvantage. Polling data might indicate a statistical tie in popular vote, but the delegate race isn’t even close.
There are only 17 solidly Republican states at present that will vote for the GOP nominee almost no matter who the nominee might be. Those 17 states represent only 146 of 538 delegates, or 270 needed to squeak out a victory.
There are 20 solidly Democrat states (counting DC’s 3 delegates) representing 242 Electoral College delegates. These delegates will go to the DNC candidate no matter whom the candidate is…
The baseline starting point for the post-convention White House race is Obama 242 – Romney 146. Romney starts with a 96 delegate deficit and will only have a few opportunities to overcome Obama in a race for the 270 delegates needed to win the Electoral College race.
Obama needs 28 more delegates to win. Romney needs 124… There are only 150 delegates in play, as you will soon see.
What States are in play?
At best, there are only 14 states in play in 2012. The other 36 states plus D.C. are entirely predictable.
Five of these states, Arkansas, Colorado, Kentucky, Louisiana and Oklahoma, are Democrat leaning states demographically, but they all voted against Barack Obama in 2008 and they are very likely to vote against Barack Obama again in 2012. Romney can pick up 38 additional delegates here, but it is not guaranteed. Romney needs at least 86 more even if he holds all five of these states…
Five more states, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia lean Republican demographically, but voted for Obama in 2008. All five of these states have Republican Governors now and their influence in turning their states from Obama in 2008 to Romney in 2012 is key to Romney picking up the 54 delegates represented by these states. Romney will still need 32 more delegates even if he can carry ALL ten of these states.
The Tea Party will also be key to Romney carrying these ten states. If Tea Party groups from all across the country focus their energies in the real battleground states, Romney can likely carry these states narrowing the margin to just those four states that will truly be a battle.
The only states left in play after that are Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Wisconsin, representing 58 delegates. All four of these states broke for Obama in 2008. Romney will have to win at least 32 of these 58 delegates in order to defeat Obama in November. He must win three of the four, New Hampshire being the least important strictly due to delegate count.
What are the Odds?
Romney cannot win without holding Arkansas, Colorado, Kentucky, Louisiana and Oklahoma. In addition, he will have to convert Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia and pick up an additional 32 delegates from Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Wisconsin. He will need at least 13 of the 14 states that are in play!
In other words, Romney will pretty much have to win every state except the hardcore Democrat states with 242 delegates that Obama already has in the bag. Romney will have to turn the entire nation RED, or at least 29 of the 50 states. He will have to have a sea to sea landslide in order to remove Obama from office. Like those odds?
That’s before we take DNC voter fraud into account…
Democrat voter fraud was massive in 2008. It will be multiplied exponentially in 2012.
Florida is trying to remove over 50,000 DEAD voters from their voter registry right now, not counting illegal voters, and Obama’s Justice Department is suing Florida to keep those DEAD voters in the game. Other states are experiencing similar issues.
SEIU controls the voting machines in this country and international leftists in Spain will be counting the votes from many of the states this year. Odds getting better?
The lame-stream press and Hollyweird will be 100% in Obama’s pocket and doing all they can to destroy the Romney family for the next five months. Picture looking brighter now?
Obama has such a clear advantage in delegate count that the popular vote almost doesn’t matter. He only needs to succeed a little in the fraudulent voter department, to keep Romney from picking up ALL of the delegates he must pick up to win.
Then We have the Paul Factor
Rand Paul is signaling party unity with his recent endorsement of Mitt Romney, which angered many Ron Paul supporters causing them to turn on Rand. Although Ron Paul has suspended his campaign in the remaining primary states, he has not yet officially closed down his campaign and many supporters are still speculating on opportunities to disrupt the GOP convention, which will of course open the door even further for Obama’s re-election.
Republican and conservative Paul supporters are already making the migration to Romney, recognizing that removing Obama from office is job #1 in America circa 2012.
Democrat supporters are perhaps the angriest Paul fans, as they became Paul supporters in 2008 when Paul was the only anti-war, pro-gay, pro-legalized marijuana candidate in the race.
Independents broke for Obama in 2008. But some independents saw hope in the anti-establishment message of Ron and Rand Paul. With Ron essentially out of the game, these voters will likely follow Rand Paul’s lead, or stay home on Election Day.
That leaves Paul’s hardcore 21st Century Libertarian supporters and I have no clue what they will do on November 6, 2012. Many promise to break to a 3rd Party candidate or stay home. But as the country worsens under the Obama cabal, some may eventually drop the Libertarian agenda in favor of the American agenda of stopping Obama’s destruction of our country. One can hope…
The VP Pick
Who Romney chooses as a running mate may be pivotal and this will be no easy task. He has no choice but to choose someone who can inspire voters not currently inspired by Romney or Obama.
Yet, he cannot choose an ineligible running mate like Marco Rubio or Bobby Jindal, no matter how popular they might be among RNC insiders.
Close attention should be paid to the States in play when choosing a running mate.
No Matter How You Look at It
Mitt Romney is a long shot with odds in the single digits. All the stars will have to align for Romney and more specifically, against Obama, in order for Romney to win.
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But no matter the overwhelming odds, removing Obama and Clinton from office is a necessary goal that we simply must find a way to accomplish.
I can’t imagine any higher priority in America today. Time and resources spent on anything else will be time and resources wasted. If Obama and Clinton are not removed from office, nothing else the people do will matter.
From my perspective, Romney is no prize. But America is in a corner, between a rock and a hard place. Those who cannot stomach a “lesser evil” will have to learn to live with a much greater evil, again.
I pray that Americans have more sense than that this time!