Trump’s Electoral Path to Victory: Will it be Enough to Overcome “The Steal”?
Thomas Ertl
The outcome of the upcoming Presidential election on November 3rd is anyone’s guess.
Often campaigns have internal polls that give them a realistic idea of the results. This happened in 2016, when the Deep State propaganda polls showed Hillary with a clear victory, but Trump’s more accurate internal polling gave his campaign a higher level of confidence heading toward Election Day.
Normally a sitting President has a huge advantage running for re-election. If you discount George Bush’s loss to Bill Clinton because of Perot, then you have to go back to Jimmy Carter (1980) and Herbert Hoover (1928) to see where a sitting Presidents lost a re-election bid.
The incumbent has the advantage of using his popularity to grow his coalition. Considering the national and social conditions, Trump has now siphoned off a portion of voters from several traditional Democrat voting blocs, such as labor unions, black voters, law-enforcement, suburban women, and Hispanics.
In view all of this, it would appear that we will see a Trump victory, though not with the margins we saw with Reagan in 1984 or Nixon in 1972, but a substantial one nonetheless.
However, we must consider that 2020 is not a normal Presidential race. Because voter fraud is a very real concern, nothing is certain.
Big City voter fraud is an acquired skill of the Democratic Party. Any Republican national candidate has to overcome a percentage of stolen votes. But this year, the Covid-19 “plandemic” has provided the Democrats with the perfect backdrop for massive cheating: mail-in ballots. The use of fraudulent mail-in ballots and post-election ballot harvesting is well-documented and will occur at unprecedented levels.
In addition to the normal Democratic Party cheating, Tom Fitton of Judicial Watch has recently exposed that 353 out of 3,141 of the nation’s counties have more registered voters than their current population.
So the question is how far will the fraud go and where will it occur? The real concern is in the eight swing states of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire. These eight states will determine the election.
TRUMP TARGETING TRADITIONALLY DEMOCRATIC VOTERS
Trump has made great strides in winning over a significant portion of Democratic voters and redrawing the map of electoral politics. In 2016, 13.5% of black men voted for Trump. It is not unreasonable to think he could double that margin in 2020. If the black vote for Trump goes from 8% in2016 to the mid-teens, the Democratic vote margin in the big cities will take a severe hit.
Suburban white women are generally susceptible to demagogues playing on their feminine nurturing instincts. This demographic group split 50/50 in 2016; however, the recent riots have triggered their need for security. Thus Trump, with his law and order policies, should make significant gains here.
Hispanic Americans are another significant demographic group that Trump is flipping. Their 2016 vote for Trump was only in the high twenties, but an October MSNBC poll revealed that Florida’s 62/35 margin in 2016 is now Trump over Biden 50/46. If Trump can maintain these numbers with Hispanics, he will easily win Florida.
TRUMP’S 2020 ELECTORAL ADVANTAGE
The following is a list of Electoral College scenarios that display Trump’s advantage and path to victory. Interestingly, he can win without two key states that he carried in 2016: Pennsylvania and Michigan. These states are where the most voter fraud will occur. Keep in mind, to win, a candidate must receive 270 electoral votes.
SCENARIO A (TRUMP 270; BIDEN 268)
- Trump carries every 2016 state that he won, minus two
- Trump loses Pennsylvania (20) and Michigan (16)
SCENARIO B (TRUMP 270; BIDEN 268)
- Trump carries every 2016 state that he won, minus three
- Trump loses Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), and Wisconsin (10)
- Trump picks up Minnesota (10)
SCENARIO C (TRUMP 270; BIDEN 268)
- Trump carries every 2016 state that he won, minus three
- Trump losses Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), and Wisconsin (10)
- Trump picks up Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4)
The electoral vote combinations of Wisconsin (10), or Minnesota (10), or Nevada/New Hampshire (10) work well for Trump in a close race.
THIRD PARTY FACTOR
In recent Presidential elections, third Party candidates have had a huge influence in swing states, where 1% or 2% can make a monumental difference.
Let’s not overlook the significant Libertarian vote in 2016 and how it’s now leaning toward Trump. The Libertarian vote, which tends to be mostly conservative, gave New Hampshire, Minnesota, and New Mexico to Clinton. The never-Trump evangelicals and Republicans that went Third Party in 2016 will now go to Trump, who now enjoys an unheard of 95% positive-response rating among Republicans.
The Libertarian Party is on the ballot of every State, and the Green Party is on the ballot of 31 States. The chart below shows the influence of the Libertarian vote in 2016. New Hampshire’s 4.2%, Minnesota’s 3.9%, and Nevada’s 3.3% gave Hillary those States. The current Libertarian candidate, Jo Jorgensen, is a “woke” left-leaning university professor from South Carolina who will siphon off far fewer Republican votes than in past elections, which could prove decisive.
STATES HILLARY CLINTON WON IN 2016
| STATES | CLINTON VOTE MARGINS | % WON | LIBERTARIAN VOTE COUNT | % WON | ELECTORAL VOTES |
| NEW HAMPSHIRE | 2,736 | 0.3 | 30,827 | 4.1 | 4 |
| MINNESOTA | 44,593 | 1.5 | 112,944 | 3.8 | 10 |
| NEVADA | 27,202 | 2.4 | 37,384 | 3.3 | 6 |
| MAINE | 20,035 | 2.7 | 37,764 | 5.1 | 3 |
| NEW MEXICO | 64,849 | 8.3 | 73,669 | 9.3 | 5 |
| COLORADO | 71,741 | 2.8 | 129,128 | 5.2 | 9 |
The Green Party candidate will help Trump in Florida, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, Colorado, and North Carolina. Ballot write-in voting in Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Arizona, and Virginia will also factor in.
The effect of Third Party candidates cannot be underestimated in view of Trump’s 2016 razor-thin victories in Wisconsin (22,748) and Michigan (10,704), as well as his narrow loss in New Hampshire (2,736).
THE STEAL
On October 24th, 2020, Joe Biden stated: “We have put together, and you guys did for president Obama’s administration before this, the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics.” Whether he meant to say it or not, he confessed to what most conservatives already know: the undeniable reality of Democratic election theft.
In the 2018 Midterms, the Democrats in Orange County,California, by use of ballot harvesting, were able to unseat four previously solid Republican Congressional seats. They kept “finding” ballots until their candidate had enough to win. Will they repeat the “Orange County method” in the 2020 election in those 353 counties with more registered voters than population?
To pull off “The Steal” on November 3rd and the days following, the country will witness voter results being delayed in key cities, such as Philadelphia, Minneapolis, St. Paul, Milwaukee, Madison, Detroit, Miami, and Las Vegas. The “fixers” will not want to announce their totals until they know the results from counties that are heavily pro-Trump. They want to know how many votes they need to “find” to overcome the deficit and thereby alter the outcome. In 2016, they made the mistake of announcing the heavily fraudulent Philadelphia vote early and being shocked when some former Democratic rural counties came in late for Trump.
“The Steal” has been carefully planned, as Biden confessed, with thousands of ballots ready to be “discovered” as they are needed, legal counsel flown in from Democrat headquarters, and the mainstream media chanting the well-worn mantra of “every vote must count.”
But “The Steal” is not without its challenges for the Democrats because they know you can’t overcome a landslide or even a significant win without being detected. Democrats know their best bet is to steal an election with narrow margins. It starts to become too obvious if the real margin too big. Exit polling and re-counts expose any overreach. But then again, the Democrats plan may be to blatantly cheat everywhere in order to cloud a Trump landslide. Can you imagine a Ryder truck pulling up to a Clark County (Las Vegas) election office late Tuesday or Wednesday with 40,000 Biden ballots?
CONCLUSION
Trump definitely has a wider path to victory than he did in 2016. Trump’s gains in demographic groups that traditionally vote Democratic will yield small percentages across the board but, when added together, can make a significant 2-3% difference in swing states.
When you combine Trump’s popularity, his inroads with former Democratic voters, the increased Republican registration, his Electoral advantage, and Biden’s failing candidacy, things bode well for a significant Trump victory. But all of his positives can be meaningless if “The Steal” is successfully carried out.
Among the many things the Trump campaign must do in the last week is to prepare America for the possibility of massive voter fraud. Thus, the question remains, how will the Republicans respond when the Democrats cloud the election results with millions of fraudulent votes?
© 2020 Tom Ertl – All Rights Reserved
E-Mail Tom Ertl: tomertl@comcast.net