W.R. Marshall -- Unraveling Iowa

UNRAVELING IOWA

by Dr. W.R. Marshall, Ph.D
January 5, 2008
NewsWithViews.com

Iowa�where white goes to be interesting�became an interesting place last Thursday night�until everyone woke up the next morning and realized, �Oh, right, it�s just Iowa.�

It�s not that Iowans aren�t nice folks, it�s just they generally miss the boat when it comes to picking presidents. Since 1972 they�ve only gotten it right twice: Jimmy Carter in 1976 (and Carter came in second to �Uncommitted), so the only time they actually picked a winner was 2000, and we all see what a really swell choice that�s been. Fact is they�re pretty poor at plain picking candidates: Bill Clinton got just 3% of the vote in 1992 and Ronald Reagan came in second to his eventual Vice-President George the First.

That was on the Republican side, where Iowa runs essentially a straw poll and delegates vote by secret ballot for their candidate, and whoever gets the most votes wins. (Unlike more recent Republican victories where they winner didn�t get the most votes.) Huckabee�s Iowa victory probably doesn�t mean much in the grand scheme of things, but on the other hand, it could be the beginning of a new era where the Republicans adopt the Democrats strategy of putting up a candidate who can�t possible win the national election.

But it�s the Democratic Party in Iowa who make things interesting and cause all this coast to coast furor. (Why else pay this much attention to a state that that gets it wrong 99% of the time, has an almost exclusively white population of 3 million, of which 200,000 vote?) We watch it�s because it�s so strange, so Byzantine. Even the candidates aren�t sure who really won even after it�s over, and often campaign hard to come in second; because in Iowa second is the new first.

Unlike primaries and elections in the rest of the nation�and most of the free world�the Democratic Party in Iowa decided not to use the �one man one vote� model, or the �delegate representative� model. They opted for the S.A.T. model:

If there are 46 people in the room and Hillary gets
16 votes, and Obama gets 16 votes, and Edwards gets
8 votes, how many votes does Biden need to remain viable.
a) more than there are left
b) less than there are left
c) left of Hillary but right of Obama
d) did anyone bring donuts

The whole �viability� thing is something like the Miss America Pageant�without the talent competition. (Although, if Biden could have spun plates while singing �God Bless America� with parrot back-up singers, I bet he would have done much better.)

It�s really very simple if you went to M.I.T. You have to get 15% of the vote in the room�oh, right, the room. In normal elections you go to the polling place, step into a booth and do your business. But out Iowa way there ain�t a booth to be found. You show up at the polling place�often with help from the candidates; they�ll arrange cars or busses, I hear Kucinich gave folks a ride in his flying saucer�and after a big plate of macaroni and cheese, you break up into groups.

Each group supports a specific candidate. Part of this support entails you standing before the assembled and testifying as to why your guy is the guy and the other guys aren�t the guy�even if one of the other guys isn�t a guy at all.

It isn�t just your group that important, it�s important where you group is in relation to other groups. It�s important that your group is next to a group who you might need later in case you candidate doesn�t have enough votes, or your candidate does have enough votes but not quite enough votes. If you�re in the former group after the first round and your guy falls short, then other people from other groups come up to you and ask you to vote for their guy, even though you didn�t want to vote for their guy which is why you voted for your guy, but your guy didn�t get enough votes to �remain viable� (fancy Iowa-speak for stay in the race), so now you have to vote for someone else. If you�re lucky enough to be in the latter group, the one where your guy got enough votes to remain viable but not to win outright, you try and grab votes from the other groups so your guy can win outright, or at least come in second, because second is the new first in Iowa.

Simple, huh?

Now it�s on to the New Hampshire Primary, which John McCain won in 2000 and Pat Buchanan won in 1996�aha, it�s starting to make sense�

WR Marshall is a syndicated columnist and novelist. His column, 'A Dull Ache'(tm) is read in over one hundred markets around the world. He also has a PhD, which he's still paying for-in more ways than one...