The 2020 presidential election campaign received its official send-off with Trump’s recent Orlando, Florida rally. The standing-room only rally was the usual inspiring, optimism-filled event to kick-off a Trump 2020 election campaign.

The rallies’ expectation of victory has been a common theme of conservative commentators, and even from some establishment media sources, that Donald Trump’s 2020 re-election is almost guaranteed. Nothing could be further from the truth regarding these presumptive predictions. In reality, if all things stay the same, America could easily see a Trump loss in 2020. Good approval numbers and a robust economy is no match for an empowered and newly engaged Democratic Party who along with the Washington establishment will do anything to stop Donald Trump.

The ruling establishment and their deep state, who has been exposed by the Trump presidency, will not rest until he is defeated. America will see an unprecedented amount of Democratic funding and tireless efforts going toward their presidential candidate. In fact, it may not matter who the Democratic nominee becomes because their greater voting numbers, massive fundraising and energies will be at unforeseen levels.

The following is the political reality of the seven reasons why Trump could lose in 2020.


Overconfidence has been the demise of many a movement, business, individual, and political campaign. I put overconfidence as the number one obstacle to a Trump re-election. It has become a serious problem because there is a real sense within the Trump camp and support base that the 2020 election is in the bag; the very opposite is true.

In mid-June of 2019, there were reports within the Trump campaign that Oregon was in play. This is an absurd thought and the height of overconfidence. A Republican presidential candidate hasn’t won Oregon since 1984 when Reagan beat Mondale. Then Laura Trump, the president’s energized and articulate daughter-in-law, states on the Hannity show that she believes the election will be a landslide, followed two days later by Trump’s campaign manager Brad Parscale declaring, “I think we win in an electoral landslide.” This kind of rhetoric has gone from wishful thinking to absurd to extremely dangerous.

Overconfidence is defined as “an excessive amount of confidence in one’s ability and judgment that is not justified.” Overconfidence breeds complacency and laziness that comes with the assumption that success is automatic. This is the very real threat to Trump’s re-election effort. The Trump faithful have a sense that they can enjoy the political ride to his inevitable re-election, as if it has already occurred.

Is this not a similar overconfidence that the Clinton campaign and supporters had during the 2016 presidential election? I wonder if Trump’s opposition is not feeding this kind of presumptive optimism to disengage his supporters. If the present attitude within the Trump camp continues through 2020, we will be looking at a Democratic inauguration in 2021. The Trump team and supporters must realize this campaign in 2020 and his re-election effort will be much harder than Trump’s surprise victory of 2016. There will be no surprises and overconfidence from the Democrats in 2020.


One of the great stories of Trump’s 2016 victory was his ability to use social media to connect both himself and his message to the American voter, along with the vast alternative media effort to overcome the daily onslaught of the anti-Trump media. Much has changed since 2016. The radical Silicon Valley establishment has moved on the pro-Trump, conservative and Christian alternative media in a massive de-platforming campaign. The fruits of their success were the Democratic House victories in the 2018 midterms. Since then they haven’t stopped in their efforts to censor all alien political thought to their neo-Marxist, globalist agenda.

The critical issue among conservatives, concerning social media censorship, is the inability for conservative pro-Trump sites to communicate to their supporters and potential new voters. The good news is that Trump has finally moved against Big Tech with antitrust legal actions. These efforts to break up the social media establishment must be sure and prompt. If not, Trump’s ability to engage the base and recruit new voters will be significantly hindered.

Trump’s campaign efforts and supporters must make an end run around social media censorship and go directly to new voters. Also, Republicans must push hard to break up Big Tech and create new social media platforms outside of establishment control. If social media censorship is not fixed Trump will not win.


The one single thing the Democratic Party, at all levels is best at, is voter fraud. Joseph Stalin’s statement, “The people who cast the votes decide nothing; the people who count the votes decide everything,” has been the inspiration for big city Democrat operatives for decades. In fact, voter fraud is so prevalent in large Democratic urban areas that the art of stealing votes is part of every Democratic candidate’s election strategy and considered normal behavior.

The 2020 Democratic voter fraud effort will be concentrated in key swing state cities of
Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Miami, Orlando, Las Vegas, and Cleveland. I am sure the planning has already begun. 06/21/2019

The Trump campaign is aware that the states that propelled Trump to a 2016 electoral victory was won by the thinnest of margins, and had Democratic operatives added a few more votes in their large cities Trump would not have won. See the 2016 election vote chart:


PENNSYLVANIA      20                            44,292                                                      .07 %
MICHIGAN              16                            10,704                                                      .03 %
WISCONSIN            10                           22,748                                                       .07 %
FLORIDA                29                            112,911                                                      1.2 %

Reverse these four state vote tallies in the 2016 election and the win would have gone to Clinton with an electoral victory of 311 vs. 231 instead of the 306 to 232 Trump margins. Just a reversal of 38,872 votes in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan would have given Clinton a 278-260 Electoral College victory. Trump’s 2016 win was razor thin.

For the current Trump team to overcome and stop Democratic voter fraud they must combine their efforts at both the federal and state levels. This could be done through federal agencies overseeing the election process and by legislators and state houses that are controlled by Republicans.

The time to investigate and start criminal prosecution of election fraud is now; December of 2020 will be too late. The question is – do the Republicans have the fight and the will to stop Democratic voter fraud? So far they haven’t.


The new political term of ballot harvesting has taken on a more public notice to the practice Democrats have mastered in the last decade. Democratic mischief in this realm is unlimited and became well known in the 2018 midterms, especially in Republican strongholds like Orange County, California.

There, massive Democratic ballots appeared on Election Day and swept long-term Republican congressmen out of office. It was estimated that as many as 250,000 ballots were dropped off in Orange County alone on Election Day.

As long as no one is prosecuted or jailed for these illegal election activities the Democrats will continue them, for we are talking about a political party without a conscience or soul. Again, it is up to the current federal election oversight agencies and the state houses of government to curtail these practices. What is laughable in the corporate media is their false obsession with Russian election meddling, yet never mention the real fraud staged by the Democrats in every modern American federal election.

While Republicans hold rallies in huge stadiums for Trump, Democrats strategically work to flood America with illegal immigrants and future Democrat voters. We have great enthusiasm, but they have a strategy to win. Our side has great rallies; their side wins elections.


Trump’s great service in the first two and a half years has been the turning on of the U.S. economic engine. Trump’s economic successes are possibly his greatest strength. His America First economic policies to bring back long-forgotten industries, the increase of wages and the stock market boom will go a long way in efforts to attract more Midwestern voters that have traditionally been pro-labor Democrats. Trump’s present campaign dependency on his economic successes and the rise of the stock market is a perfect setup for the central bankers and international financiers to stage an economic collapse just before the election in 2020. A similar economic downturn in October of 2008 propelled Obama to victory in his first presidential run.

Considering the immense debt of the U.S. Treasury and the tenuous condition of the American dollar, presently held as the world reserve currency, it may not take much for our global financial masters to contrive an orchestrated economic collapse and to turn Trump into a one-term president. Bad economic news always hurts the party in the White House. The hope here is that if this is attempted by the global financiers, Trump would move against the private Federal Reserve and nationalize it.


President Trump’s increased threatening rhetoric against Iran puts him in a troublesome political situation. Complicating the issue is the western media and the Washington establishment constantly pushing the U.S. into a war with Iran.

The mid-June attacks on the Japanese and Norwegian tankers in the Gulf of Oman, with the immediate Iran blame game, were likely staged false flags. Why would Iran attack a Japanese tanker while the Japanese Prime Minister Abe was in Tehran encouraging the Iranians to come to the negotiating table with the U.S.? This operation seems to be a desperate attempt to drive Trump and the United States into war.

Trump’s neo-conservative (neo-cons) war-loving advisers have returned and are advocating a limited strike. The limited strike theory is a myth. A surgical strike is a provocation that could unleash the dogs of war that no one can control. Then pride and arrogance become the new order instead of reason and restraint.

Any kind of Trump-initiated war with Iran will destroy his bid for re-election. War with Iran is unwinnable. With Iran we are not dealing with weaker countries like Serbia, Libya or Iraq. Iran is a serious military power with 80 million people and a war against them will be long, protracted and costly. Trump would face a worldwide political opinion nightmare. The difficult questions would be unending and unanswerable. Pat Buchanan stated an Iran war would cause a worldwide recession and would be forever known as “Trump’s War.”

Trump campaigned against all these senseless and expensive Bush family Middle Eastern wars, and now he might be engaging in one himself. Also, what could he use as a legitimate moral reason for the war? What exactly is America’s interest? A war with Iran will not come with a valid moral reason even considering our new America First policy. Let us never forget the supposed Iraqi weapons of mass destruction that turned out to be a lie resulted in a war with significant American losses and seven trillions of cost. What will be the losses and cost against an Iran three times as large as Iraq?

War against Iran will daily weigh on Trump like the Vietnam War did on Lyndon Johnson. Johnson’s Gulf of Tonkin false flag incident and escalation of his war to appease the Military Industrial Complex was his undoing. Those living in the 1960’s can remember the monthly advanced deterioration of Johnson physically and mentally. The same could happen to Trump if he foolishly attacks Iran.

Hopefully, Trump will defer back to his non-interventionist instincts and campaign promises and disregard his neo-con war-loving counselors – the likes of Bolton, Pompeo, Kushner, Schenker, Greenblatt and Friedman. Maybe he will end any thoughts of an Iranian conflict like he did with his policy reversal in leaving Syria. We can only hope.


What soon became apparent in propelling Trump to victory in 2020 was the dominant white Evangelical vote for Trump that came in at 81%. To achieve this, Trump had to overcome the constant demonization and very public opposition of the Evangelical Never-Trump leaders like Russell Moore, Al Mohler, Erik Erikson, and World Magazine with their call to abandon Trump in the fall of 2016. The good news was that the Evangelical rank-and-file didn’t listen to their anti-Trump leaders.

As in 2016, forecasters have presumed that the previous heavy Evangelical vote for Trump will remain Trump’s most reliable voting block. His America First policies, Supreme Court nominees, and very public pro-life stance have endeared him to much of Protestant Christianity. However, the 2016 Never-Trumpers, along with others like Tim Keller and JD Greear (Southern Baptist Convention president), who are advocates of the modern social justice movement which has adopted cultural Marxism, are leading a large number of Evangelical millennials into the far left Democratic camp.

Many of the 2016 Evangelical doubters who eventually gave their vote to Trump are no longer concerned over him and his leadership. So, by all standards, it would seem Trump’s Evangelical vote numbers in 2020 could reach into the high 80s or even 90 percentiles. But, there are some obstacles to these numbers because of the concerted effort by the unrepentant Never-Trumpers to suppress Trump’s strong Evangelical vote. If Trump’s Evangelical numbers drop to the low-70 percentiles he will be in big trouble in some of the swing states.


During Trump’s current term in office the people have witnessed the exposure of three powerful enemies of America: the corporate media, the deep state and the Democratic Party.

It is hard to believe how radical the Democrats have become. They are now a Party whose passion and vision is to destroy anything that is virtuous . They despise the Christian faith, glory in the killing of babies, and promoting any form of human debauchery. They enthusiastically support the invasion of the Southern border and give aid and comfort to the invaders. The Democratic Party has become a political institution of evil and is hell-bent to pull down what remains of America’s Christian heritage and culture. We cannot allow such people to run our government.

2020 will be another critical and historic election. What Trump offers the country is a chance to hold back these Democratic forces of evil, the ability to change the Supreme Court and the federal Judiciary for a generation and the additional time needed to further expose and battle the Washington establishment and deep state.

The global establishment will hit Trump with everything in their vast financial and political arsenal. Trump, who has empowered and inspired the worldwide national sovereignty movement, will be singled out for their vengeance.

This is the very reason why Trump’s re-election is so important. He is a historic political reformer who has totally changed the geo-political narrative to the real issue of our time, nationalism versus globalism. The global establishment has seen, in two years, their 100 year plan for a total consolidation of their financial, political, and institutional power into world government implode before their very eyes.

The global elite, social media, corporate press, and the Democratic Party will all join forces to defeat Trump in 2020. The American people will witness the most political, corrupt, well-financed election battle in presidential history.

Engagement in the battle for a Trump re-election and a conservative House and Senate is a worthy one – just the thought of a radical Democrat president is enough to compel any sane American to action. It will take a heroic effort by the Trump campaign leadership and his individual supporters to bring millions of new Trump voters to the polls to have any hope of victory.

I would hope that this article and others would give Trump supporters a reality check to the tenuous situation we face in Trump’s possible re-election. We must out-plan and out-work our formidable opposition.

© 2019 Tom Ertl – All Rights Reserved

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